September Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes September 2017

  • Global equities climbed higher in August, with the MSCI ACWI up 0.52%. The average country was up a modest 1.13%, and the range of returns for August, between countries, was 23%.
  • The United States was up 0.25%. Japan was flat, down 0.05%, as was Europe as a whole, up 0.06%. EM was the best performing region, up 2.23%. Within EM, countries in Latin America were the best, up 4.62% as a whole.
  • As you can see, Turkey is the riskiest ranked country, while exhibiting the 2nd best Fundamentals, 4th best Momentum, and is the cheapest country in our universe. Poland has the best Momentum, low Risk and cheap Valuations, but suffers from the worst Fundamentals. Both are top performers so far YTD.

August Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes August 2017

  • Global equities marched higher in July, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.79%. The average country was up 4.64%, and the range of returns for July, between countries, was 13.88%.
  • All country returns YTD are positive. Canada is the worst performing country YTD, up 7.23%. The top countries are Austria (44.47), Poland (42.61), Turkey, (40.24), and China (35.96). The average country is up an amazing 22.52% YTD.
  • China’s top ranking is supported by an attractive blend of strong Fundamentals, positive Momentum, and low Valuations. China shows strong growth in EPS, Sales, and Leading Economic Indicators. It is ranked 3rd overall in six month USD price momentum (up 27.3% vs. a country avg. of 17%). It also exhibits a forward P/E ratio of 13.5x vs a country avg. of 15x.

July Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes July 2017

  • Global equities marched slightly higher in higher in June, with the MSCI ACWI up 0.45%. The average country was up 0.78%, and the range of returns for June, between countries, was 10.23%.
  • All country returns YTD are positive. Brazil is the worst performing country YTD, up 3.00%. The top countries are Poland (+34%), Austria (+33%), Turkey (+32%) and Korea (+28%). The average country is up a 17.08% YTD.
  • European countries, as a whole, are making a strong move towards the top of the rankings. France is now our #2 ranked country, followed by Poland (#4), Spain (#5), Turkey (#6), Germany (#7) and Austria (#9). The Nordic countries (Sweden, Netherlands, and Denmark) round up #8, #10, and #11. We’ve seen this trend strengthening since the start of the year.

June Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes June 2017

  • Global equities continued to climb higher in May, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.21%. The average country was up 3.15%, and the range of returns for May, between countries, was 14.42%%.
  • The United States continues to fall in our country rankings. Now ranked 15th overall, the U.S. suffers from expensive Valuations, increased Risk, and deteriorating Momentum. The U.S. has a 3.1x P/B ratio (vs a country avg. of 1.9x) and a 18x 12mo Forward P/E ratio (vs a country avg. of 14x). Over the last 3 months, the U.S. is the sixth worst performing country, up 2% vs a country avg. of 8%.
  • China and Korea remain our #1 and #2 ranked countries. Both exhibit cheap Valuations and better than average Fundamentals. China has the best Earnings Growth (19% vs country avg. of 11%), followed closely by Korea (17.5%). Korea has the best Growth/PE ratio (1.4x vs a country avg. of 0.6x) followed closely by China (1.2x). We expect these countries to continue to stay at the top of our rankings.

May Country Rankings

 Country Portfolio Notes May 2017

 

  • The United States was up slightly, up 1.05%. Japan was the same, up 1.05%, and Europe as a whole was up 3.53%. Europe was the best performing region for the second straight month. EM wasn’t far behind, up 2.19% during April. EM is still the best YTD, up 14%.
  • All countries returns stayed positive so far for 2017. Canada is the worst performing country YTD, up 0.33%. The best is Poland, up over 31%.. The top countries are Poland (+31%), Turkey (+23.5%), and Spain, Korea, and Mexico (all up over 17%). The average country is up 12.62% YTD.
  • Japan fell 9 spots to 16th This is due to deteriorating Fundamental dat. Japan has a 7.9% ROE vs a country avg. of 9.5%. We are currently hedging our Yen exposure.

April Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes April 2017

  • Global equities continued to surge higher in March, with the MSCI ACWI up 1.22%. The average country was up 3.08%, and the range of returns for March, between countries, was 15.50%.
  • The United States was flat, up only 0.10%. Japan was down ‐0.37%, and Europe as a whole was up 4.02%. Europe was the best performing region during the month. EM was the next best, up 2.52% during March. EM is also the best YTD, up 11.44%.
  • China is now the #1 ranked country. It exhibits the best Fundamental score, 3rd best Value score, and 12th best Momentum score. Germany and Austria continue to be the highest ranked European countries, taking the 3rd and 4th ranks

March Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes March 2017

 

  • Global equities continued to surge higher in February, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.81%. The average country was up 2.04%, and the range of returns for February, between countries, was 8.50%.
  • The United States was up 3.86%, Japan was up 1.12%, and Europe as a whole was up 1.19%. Europe was again, the worst performing region during the month. EM was the best, up 8.70% YTD.
  • Israel surged to the top of the rankings and is now ranked #2 overall. Israel has the best Fundamentals, led by the fastest growth in PMI (7.40% vs a country avg. of 1.1%). It also has 17.1% earnings growth compared to a country avg. of 11.2%.

February Country Rankings

PDF imageFebruary Portfolio Notes

  • Global equities started the year off strong in January, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.73%. The average country was up 4.04%, and the range of returns for January, between countries, was 23.44%.
  • The United States was up 2.04%, Japan was up 3.72%, and Europe as a whole was up 2.08%. Europe was the worst performing region during January, while Pacific ex Japan (+5.68%) and EM (+5.47%) were the best performing regions.

January Country Rankings

Our latest Country Rankings are out. See below for some general comments and click the link to see more details.

  • Global equities finished strong in December, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.16%. The ACWI finished the year up 7.86%, with the average country up 6.63% in 2016. The range of returns for the year, between countries, was 91.10%.
  • China fell from the #1 rank to now ranked #5. During December, China was down -4.09%, joining Hong Kong (-6.39%) as the two worst performing countries.
  • During 2016, Europe was the only region to return negative performance, -0.40%. However, it was the best performing region in December, up 5.24%.

 

PDF imageJanuary Country Portfolio Notes

 

December Country Rankings

Our latest Country Rankings are out. See below for some general comments and click the link to see more details.

  • Global equities were slightly positive in November, with the MSCI ACWI up 0.76%. The ACWI is up 5.58% YTD, with the average country up 4.14% YTD. The range of returns for the year, between countries, is 89.52%.
  • Dispersion among country returns is increasing. Two of the last three months have exhibited ranges greater than 40%. The last time we had a greater than 40% range in a given month was in 2008.
  • The United States continues to fall in our rankings. The United States is now currently ranked 15th. It has a Price/Book ratio is 2.8x vs a country avg. of 1.8x, and a Forward 12 month P/E of 17.20x, with the country avg. at 14.10x

PDF imageDecember Country Portfolio Notes