April Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes April 2017

  • Global equities continued to surge higher in March, with the MSCI ACWI up 1.22%. The average country was up 3.08%, and the range of returns for March, between countries, was 15.50%.
  • The United States was flat, up only 0.10%. Japan was down ‐0.37%, and Europe as a whole was up 4.02%. Europe was the best performing region during the month. EM was the next best, up 2.52% during March. EM is also the best YTD, up 11.44%.
  • China is now the #1 ranked country. It exhibits the best Fundamental score, 3rd best Value score, and 12th best Momentum score. Germany and Austria continue to be the highest ranked European countries, taking the 3rd and 4th ranks

March Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes March 2017

 

  • Global equities continued to surge higher in February, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.81%. The average country was up 2.04%, and the range of returns for February, between countries, was 8.50%.
  • The United States was up 3.86%, Japan was up 1.12%, and Europe as a whole was up 1.19%. Europe was again, the worst performing region during the month. EM was the best, up 8.70% YTD.
  • Israel surged to the top of the rankings and is now ranked #2 overall. Israel has the best Fundamentals, led by the fastest growth in PMI (7.40% vs a country avg. of 1.1%). It also has 17.1% earnings growth compared to a country avg. of 11.2%.

February Country Rankings

PDF imageFebruary Portfolio Notes

  • Global equities started the year off strong in January, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.73%. The average country was up 4.04%, and the range of returns for January, between countries, was 23.44%.
  • The United States was up 2.04%, Japan was up 3.72%, and Europe as a whole was up 2.08%. Europe was the worst performing region during January, while Pacific ex Japan (+5.68%) and EM (+5.47%) were the best performing regions.

January Country Rankings

Our latest Country Rankings are out. See below for some general comments and click the link to see more details.

  • Global equities finished strong in December, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.16%. The ACWI finished the year up 7.86%, with the average country up 6.63% in 2016. The range of returns for the year, between countries, was 91.10%.
  • China fell from the #1 rank to now ranked #5. During December, China was down -4.09%, joining Hong Kong (-6.39%) as the two worst performing countries.
  • During 2016, Europe was the only region to return negative performance, -0.40%. However, it was the best performing region in December, up 5.24%.

 

PDF imageJanuary Country Portfolio Notes

 

December Country Rankings

Our latest Country Rankings are out. See below for some general comments and click the link to see more details.

  • Global equities were slightly positive in November, with the MSCI ACWI up 0.76%. The ACWI is up 5.58% YTD, with the average country up 4.14% YTD. The range of returns for the year, between countries, is 89.52%.
  • Dispersion among country returns is increasing. Two of the last three months have exhibited ranges greater than 40%. The last time we had a greater than 40% range in a given month was in 2008.
  • The United States continues to fall in our rankings. The United States is now currently ranked 15th. It has a Price/Book ratio is 2.8x vs a country avg. of 1.8x, and a Forward 12 month P/E of 17.20x, with the country avg. at 14.10x

PDF imageDecember Country Portfolio Notes

 

 

 

 

November Country Rankings

Our latest Country Rankings are out. See below for some general comments and click the link to see more details.

  • The United States continues to fall in our rankings. The United States
    Price/Book ratio is 2.8x vs a country avg. of 1.8x, and has
    deteriorating short‐term momentum. It is now ranked 12th in our
    model and we maintain a slight overweight.
  • Germany climbed in our rankings and is now ranked 6th overall,
    exhibiting better than average Risk and Valuation scores. It has a
    7.8x Price to Cash Earnings vs. a country avg. of 11x, and has the
    lowest CDS spread levels of any country.

PDF imageNovember Country Rankings

October Country Rankings

Our latest Country Rankings are out. See below for some general comments and click the link to see more details.

  • China leads the way, ranked #1 for its second consecutive month. China saw some deterioration in its Risk rank, but saw equal improvement in its Momentum rank.
    • After a slow start to the year, China is now up 13.40% in just  the last three months
  • South Korea is ranked #3, and we spent considerable time discussing whether or not to hedge the Korea Won. Ultimately, we decided to continue with our hedge.
    • Korea has a Growth/PE ratio of 1.50%, the best in our universe.
  • The United States saw the biggest overall drop in our rankings, dropping from 4th to 10th. The U.S. saw its biggest deterioration in its 3mo momentum, and saw a significant increase in downside volatility.

PDF imageOctober Country Notes

September Country Rankings

Our latest Country Rankings are out. See below for some general comments and click the link to see more details.

  • European countries are the biggest laggards so far YTD and is the only region exhibiting negative performance YTD. Europe as a whole is down -0.86% YTD, with Italy (-16.9%), Israel (-11.8%) and Spain (-4.5%) as the worst performers.
  • Canada is the best performing developed market YTD, up 12.7% in local currency terms and 19.3% in USD.
  • China moved up two spots overall to be our #1 ranked country. China’s Momentum and Risk scores improved the most.  China has the best 3 month price momentum, up 19.7% in the last three months, and up 37.9% in the last six months.

PDF imageSeptember Country Portfolio Notes

August Country Rankings

Check out our latest Country Portfolio Notes to see where we believe there is opportunity.

Country Portfolio Notes Aug 2016

  • Emerging Market countries are the best performing, as a whole up 11.8% YTD. Brazil and Peru continue to add to their impressive returns. YTD, Brazil is up 61% and Peru is up 59%.
  • 18 out of the top 20 best performing countries YTD are EM countries. Canada is the best developed country (9th overall), up 19% YTD. U.S. is the next best developed country (19th overall), up 7% YTD.
  • Global equities were positive in July, with the MSCI ACWI up 4.31%. The ACWI is now up 5.59% YTD, with the average country up 8.09% YTD. The range of returns for the year is now 78%.
  • The top four ranked countries stayed the same: Thailand, Korea, China, and the U.S.

July Country Rankings

Check out our latest Country Portfolio Notes to see where we believe there is opportunity.

PDF imageCountry Portfolio Notes July 2016

  • The All Country World Index is up 1.23% YTD.
  • The range of best performing country to worst preforming country for YTD is 71%.
  • European countries are unattractive. 12 out of the worst 15 countries in our rankings are European.
  • Check out the link to see which countries have attractive fundamental, momentum, risk and valuation data.