Accuvest featured in ETF.com article

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Dave Garff shares some insight on the complicated issue surrounding Mexico.

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/uphill-battle-facing-mexico-etfs?nopaging=1

August 2015 Portfolio Notes

PDF imageCountry Portfolio Notes August 2015

July Comments

  • The MSCI ACWI was up 0.87% in July.
  • China is still in positive territory on the year, up 2.31%.
  • Our 3 countries with hedged exposure all outperformed. Japan (1.73% vs. 0.47%), Germany (3.56% vs. 2.69%), and Korea (‐3.53% vs. ‐8.04%).

August Rankings

  • China and Hong Kong both dropped double digits in the rankings.
  • On the European front the biggest moves came from Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Austria, and Switzerland.

  • The United States remains an overweight, but the valuations still look extended and the momentum has slowed significantly.

July 2015 Portfolio Notes

PDF imageCountry Portfolio Notes July 2015

June Comments

  • The MSCI ACWI was down ‐2.35% in June, but still closed the
    quarter up 0.35%.
  • On the year, China is still the best performing country in our model,
    up 14.65%.
  • The United States completed the second straight quarter of
    underperformance relative to international markets.

July Rankings

  • Germany is the only Euro based country with an overweight
    position.
  • In addition to currency hedging in Japan and Germany, we are
    now hedging Won exposure in South Korea.

June 2015 Portfolio Notes

PDF imageCountry Portfolio Notes June 2015

May Comments

  • The MSCI ACWI was down -0.13% in May and is now up 5.14% on the year.
  •  On the year international markets are still outperforming the US by 3.61%
  • Hedging currency exposures was key in May, as it added roughly 2.0% to returns.

June Rankings

  • The main countries we have hedged exposure to are Japan, Germany, and Brazil.
  • Asia remains the largest regional overweight across our portfolios.

May 2015 Portfolio Notes

PDF image  Country Portfolio Notes May 2015

April Comments

  • The MSCI ACWI was up 2.90% in April and is now up 5.28% on the year. Latin America was the best performing region, up 10.28% for the month.
  • The biggest currency effect has been in Brazil where the market is up 12.48% YTD in local currency.
  • China, our top ranked country, had another strong month, up 16.68% in April.

May Rankings

  • China remains the top ranked country in the model, and is currently ranked in the top 5 of all four factor groups.
  • Germany had a big move down in the ranking after a big drop in their momentum and risk scores.

April 2015 Portfolio Notes

PDF imageView the full April 2015 Portfolio Notes here.

apr.15.countriesMarch Comments

  • The MSCI ACWI was down -1.55% in March and only 25% of the countries in the model had positive returns. The range of returns between countries stayed fairly wide at 21.57%.
  • Dollar strength is continuing to impact investment returns. The currency impact on international equities cost dollar based investors 2.46% last month.
  • Performance in Chinese equities has played a major role in the recent strategy outperformance. China is up 24.0% over the last 12 months while the average country is down -2.38%.

April Rankings

  • The regional impact from China and Japan has helped strengthen the case for Hong Kong which is now the #3 country in the model.
  • The US has continued to move slowly down the rankings and is moving towards a neutral allocation. If international continues to show increased momentum, we would expect the US to settle in the middle of rankings during the second quarter.

March 2015 Portfolio Notes

PDF imageView the full March 2015 Portfolio Notes here.

mar15.countriesFebruary Comments

  • The MSCI ACWI was up 5.57% in February, moving the global markets back into the green for the year. Russia led the way up 22.82% while Turkey was down 9.11%
  • Europe has been the best performing region on the year up 10.22% in LCL. Dollar strength has been a headwind, as Europe is only up 6.27% in USD.
  • Emerging Markets are positive, but trailing developed markets for the year. They have trailed developed markets by 38.24% over the last three years.

March Rankings

  • Japan and Israel surged up the rankings. Japan showed solid improvements in their risk ranking, while Israel improved in both fundamentals and risk.
  • The March country rankings show a decisive bias towards developed markets. China, Indonesia, and Taiwan are the lone emerging countries in the top 10.

February 2015 Portfolio Notes

PDF imageView the full February 2015 Portfolio Notes here.

feb.15.countriesJanuary Comments

  • The MSCI ACWI was down -1.56% in January, but just over half of the countries had positive returns for the month. The US was down -2.85%, which significantly brought down the benchmark index.
  • USD strength had a major impact on international ETF investments in January. The average country was down -0.65% in USD for the month, but up 2.44% in local currency.
  • India continues to show strong performance. They were the best performing country in January, up 7.94% and have been the best performing market over the last 12 months, up 38.98%

February Rankings

  • The US fell out of the top 10 for the first time in several years. They are in the bottom third of all countries in both valuation and momentum.
  • Despite Turkey and China being at the top of the model, the majority of emerging countries are still towards the bottom of the rankings. We currently have no exposure to Latin America.

January Portfolio Notes

This month in the country ranking portfolio notes we take a look back on 2014, where we saw a wide range of country performance.  Also, we dive into the January model and provide some commentary on how USD strength has impacted country returns.

Comments are always welcome!

David

PDF imageRead the January Country Portfolio Notes here

December 2014 Country Rankings

PDF imageRead the full Country Ranking here.

Notable Moves to the Upside…
  • Spain… moved from an underweight position to a neutral weighting. Valuation metrics and fundamentals both showed improvements in November. Spain has the highest growth in EPS over the last year and has the 4th highest dividend yield at 4.55%.
  • Japan… climbed 10 spots and is currently ranked 10th overall. Japan has been the #1 performing country in local currency over the last 6 months, up 18.72%. Hedging the currency has been a smart choice as Japan is only up 1.78% in USD during that same stretch.
Notable Moves to the Downside…
  • Mexico… fell 11 spots and is currently ranked 20th overall. Fundamentals weakened and momentum slowed in November. Mexico remains the most expensive country we follow with a trailing P/E of 21.25 and a forward P/E pf 17.91.
  • Norway… fell 5 spots in the latest rankings, despite still having the best valuation ranking and a top 5 risk profile. They were the worst performing country in November, primarily due to their 31% exposure to oil and energy companies