January 2014 Country Rankings

2013 finished with the United States claiming the top spot as the best performing country in the model up 31.8%.  Meanwhile, Emerging Markets continued to stumble and finished 2013 in negative territory.

The biggest story in 2014 will be  the relative value outside of the United States and what countries will present the best opportunities to take advantage of it.

Notable Moves to the Upside

  • India… jumped 15 spots from 26th to 11th overall.  Their biggest improvement came in their risk rankings.  India is this best fundamental country in the model with solid internal growth and OECD measures.
  • USA… moved up 5 spots and is now ranked #3 overall.  The only factor group holding the US back are the valuation metrics.  The US is currently the second most expensive country we follow and has a forward PE of 15.7x.

Notable Moves to the Downside

  • Turkey … fell 10 spots and is now ranked 31st in the model.  They have had horrible momentum and are the worst performing country over the last 3 months down -8.9%.  During December Turkey was down -15.1%.
  • Thailand… had the largest absolute drop and are currently ranked 29th overall.  They showed rapidly decelerating momentum and increasing risk.  Thailand is the second worst performing country over the last 6 months.

For more on countries, strategies, and movement in the model, see our full Portfolio Notes:

PDF imageCountry Portfolio Notes January 2014

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