January Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes January 2018

  • All country returns for 2017 are positive in dollar terms. The top countries are Austria (58%), China (54%), and Poland (54%). The average country is up an amazing 30.24% in 2017.
  • For 2017, Poland consistently ranked in the top five of our rankings from a Valuation standpoint. Even despite the amazing 54% climb during 2017, Poland still is considered cheap, and we believe has more room to run.  It is currently our 5th most attractive market (out of 34 countries in the MSCI ACWI). Poland has the 3rd lowest Price to Book ratio, at 1.38x vs. a country average of 2.0x. It also has the lowest Price to Cash Earnings ratio at 5.6x vs a country average of 10.7x.

Accuvest featured in Meb Faber’s Podcast

Eric Clark was recently featured in Meb Faber’s podcast speaking about Accuvest’s Alpha Brands strategies.

Click the link below and either listen to or read the podcast.

http://mebfaber.com/2018/01/03/episode-88-eric-clark-still-believe-alpha-available-possible-beating-benchmark-possible/

 

December Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes December 2017

  • China has been a highlight all year, and has consistently stayed in the top five of our rankings. This month, China exhibits the #1 rank both from a Fundamental and Momentum view. China is up 51% YTD. They have the best Long Term Earnings growth (24% vs a country avg. of 13%) and Sales per share growth (18% vs a country avg. of 3%). China became slightly more expensive, as their Valuation rank worsened from being ranked 12th to now 17th
  • The United Kingdom continues to remain as the worst ranked country we follow. Ranking in the bottom in almost every category, there isn’t much that is attractive with regards to the UK.

November Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes November 2017

  • Germany has been a highlight all year, and has consistently stayed in the top five of our rankings. This month, Germany exhibits the #2 rank from a Risk view, with some big improvements in their CDS spread levels over the last month. They also have the 2nd best improvement in downside volatility in the last 30 days. Germany has a better than avg. Price to Cash Earnings ratio (8.9x vs a country average of 11x).
  • Sweden has seen a recent surge in economic activity (2 month change in PMI +3.4 points) while also carrying the 3rd highest ROE (15.1% vs. a country avg. of 10.7%). Korea stands out as an attractive value play, with the best P/B ratio (1.2x vs. a country avg. of 2x) and the 2nd best Long Term EPS growth trend (24.1% vs a country avg. of 13.1%).
  • Global equities climbed higher in October, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.08%. The average country was up a 1.41%, and the range of returns for October, between countries, was 16%.
  • The United States was up 2.26%. Japan was up 4.61%, as was Europe as a whole, up 0.47%. EM was up 3.51%%. Japan and EM were the best performing regions during October.

October Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes October 2017

  • China has been a highlight all year, and has consistently stayed in the top five of our rankings. This month, China exhibits the #1 rank from both a Fundamental view and a Momentum view. Out of the entire universe, China has the best Earnings growth (27.6% vs a country avg. of 12.8%), Sales/share growth (18.6% vs a country avg. of 3.1%), and the best six and nine month momentum (up 46.2% over the last nine months vs a country avg. of 21%).
  • Global equities marched higher in September, with the MSCI ACWI up 1.93%. The average country was up a 0.70%, and the range of returns for September, between countries, was 15.1%.
  • The United States was up 2.00%. Japan was up 1.96%, as was Europe as a whole, up 3.30%. EM was down 0.40%. Europe was the best performing region during September.

September Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes September 2017

  • Global equities climbed higher in August, with the MSCI ACWI up 0.52%. The average country was up a modest 1.13%, and the range of returns for August, between countries, was 23%.
  • The United States was up 0.25%. Japan was flat, down 0.05%, as was Europe as a whole, up 0.06%. EM was the best performing region, up 2.23%. Within EM, countries in Latin America were the best, up 4.62% as a whole.
  • As you can see, Turkey is the riskiest ranked country, while exhibiting the 2nd best Fundamentals, 4th best Momentum, and is the cheapest country in our universe. Poland has the best Momentum, low Risk and cheap Valuations, but suffers from the worst Fundamentals. Both are top performers so far YTD.

Accuvest Market Update Q2 2017

August Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes August 2017

  • Global equities marched higher in July, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.79%. The average country was up 4.64%, and the range of returns for July, between countries, was 13.88%.
  • All country returns YTD are positive. Canada is the worst performing country YTD, up 7.23%. The top countries are Austria (44.47), Poland (42.61), Turkey, (40.24), and China (35.96). The average country is up an amazing 22.52% YTD.
  • China’s top ranking is supported by an attractive blend of strong Fundamentals, positive Momentum, and low Valuations. China shows strong growth in EPS, Sales, and Leading Economic Indicators. It is ranked 3rd overall in six month USD price momentum (up 27.3% vs. a country avg. of 17%). It also exhibits a forward P/E ratio of 13.5x vs a country avg. of 15x.

July Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes July 2017

  • Global equities marched slightly higher in higher in June, with the MSCI ACWI up 0.45%. The average country was up 0.78%, and the range of returns for June, between countries, was 10.23%.
  • All country returns YTD are positive. Brazil is the worst performing country YTD, up 3.00%. The top countries are Poland (+34%), Austria (+33%), Turkey (+32%) and Korea (+28%). The average country is up a 17.08% YTD.
  • European countries, as a whole, are making a strong move towards the top of the rankings. France is now our #2 ranked country, followed by Poland (#4), Spain (#5), Turkey (#6), Germany (#7) and Austria (#9). The Nordic countries (Sweden, Netherlands, and Denmark) round up #8, #10, and #11. We’ve seen this trend strengthening since the start of the year.

June Country Rankings

Country Portfolio Notes June 2017

  • Global equities continued to climb higher in May, with the MSCI ACWI up 2.21%. The average country was up 3.15%, and the range of returns for May, between countries, was 14.42%%.
  • The United States continues to fall in our country rankings. Now ranked 15th overall, the U.S. suffers from expensive Valuations, increased Risk, and deteriorating Momentum. The U.S. has a 3.1x P/B ratio (vs a country avg. of 1.9x) and a 18x 12mo Forward P/E ratio (vs a country avg. of 14x). Over the last 3 months, the U.S. is the sixth worst performing country, up 2% vs a country avg. of 8%.
  • China and Korea remain our #1 and #2 ranked countries. Both exhibit cheap Valuations and better than average Fundamentals. China has the best Earnings Growth (19% vs country avg. of 11%), followed closely by Korea (17.5%). Korea has the best Growth/PE ratio (1.4x vs a country avg. of 0.6x) followed closely by China (1.2x). We expect these countries to continue to stay at the top of our rankings.