INTL Momentum Has Shifted

International Relative Strength has shifted, and the time to increase your International exposure is now.

INTL Now – Relative Strength 05.2017

 

https://www.etftrends.com/etf-investing/3-reasons-why-the-price-is-right-for-international-opportunities/

I-Invest 2016 ETF Awards

Congratulations! Accuvest Global Advisors recently was reviewed by I-Invest and selected to receive a 2016 ETF Award.

The Accuvest Global Core Equity strategy was named as the “Best Diversified Global Equity Fund (3 Years)”.

Please see award and link below:

I-Invest ETF Awards

http://www.i-investintl.com/2016-accuvest-global-advisors-

 

 

Charts to Watch – Global Market Update – November 20, 2015

Please use the link below to access this week’s update on global financial conditions, fixed income markets, world equities, economic data, major currencies, and commodities.  Feel free to contact us with any questions or requests.

Charts to Watch – Global Market Update – Nov 20 2015

Best regards,

James

Disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg

AGA Chart Book – March 15, 2013


AGA Weekly Chartbook

1.    Global Financial Conditions

  • U.S. Equities rallied this week (S&P 500 +0.61%)
  • S&P 500 Advance Decline Line has made new highs suggesting positive market breadth and participation
  • The internals of the current S&P 500 rally are better than at the tops in 2000 and 2007
  • U.S. and European Financial Conditions remain conducive to risk taking
  • Emerging Markets have underperformed Developed Markets YTD
  • Japan (8.7%), Spain (+4.7%), and Germany (+3.9%) are leading developed markets MTD
  • Italy remains under pressure and down YTD
  • Fixed Income is flat to down over the last 6 months
  • S&P 500 P/E multiple is forecasted to contract from 15.32 to 12.57 over the next 24 months
  • Consensus earnings growth for FY 2013 is a lofty 10.4%

2.    Interest Rates and Fixed Income

  • The US 10yr yields dropped this week, slipping 5bps on the week, currently @ 1.99%
  • High Yield Bonds rallied this week, but appear to be losing upward price momentum
  • 5 Year Forward Inflation Expectations are at 2.82%, flat on the week

3.    Major Currencies

  • The Swedish Krona (+2.53%) is the strongest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Japanese Yen (-17.73%) is the weakest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The South African Rand is forecasted to be the strongest major currencies vs. USD (+4.35%) through Q2 2013
  • The Mexican Peso is forecasted to be the weakest major currencies vs. USD (-1.21%) through Q2 2013
  • The US Dollar has bounced nicely from support @ 79 and consolidated this week, currently @ 82.14 on the Dollar Index
  • EURO @ $1.3076, down from 1.36 six weeks ago and consolidating over the last two weeks
  • The Mexican Central Bank cut interest rates by 0.50% last week (first cut since 2009)
  • The Mexican Government proposed anti-trust economic reforms on Monday
  • MXN/USD @ 12.43, strengthening from 12.67 last week and making new 12 month lows
  • Mexican Peso strength is currently exhibiting a high correlation with S&P 500 strength

4.    Global Equity Markets

  • The ACWI and S&P 500 have broken out to 12 month highs, but remain below all-time highs
  • The MSCI EAFE and MSCI EM remain below recent 12 month highs
  • Over the last 12 months (in USD): Turkey (+37%) and Australia (+26%) lead global markets
  • Healthcare (+15.9%) leads Global Sectors YTD; Basic Materials lag all sectors (+0.98%) YTD
  • Asia Pacific (+13.3%) leads global regions YTD; BRICs lag all regions (+2.1%) YTD

5.    The Economy

  • Housing, Real Estate, and the Labor Market have been bright spots of the US Economy
  • Business Cycle Indicators are improving
  • Economic Data has surprised to the upside over the last 4 weeks
  • Next week’s economic calendar includes a FOMC decision and press conference, housing data, and leading indicators

6.    Commodities

  • Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a medium-term downtrend
  • Gold @ $1591/oz., up from $1578/oz. last week with support at $1550/oz.
  • Oil @ $93.50/barrel, up from $91.95 last week
  • Average Gas Prices have stopped moving higher, currently at $3.69, down from $3.77 two weeks ago

7.    Investor Sentiment

  • The VIX Index @ 11.30, down from 15.36 two weeks ago
  • Financial Stress remains low, and has dropped over the last 4 weeks
  • AAII % Bullish spiked, and  now outnumbers % Bearish by 13.4%
  • State Street Investor Confidence has broken out to 12 month highs

 

Please feel free to forward any questions or suggestions.

Thanks,

James

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

March 2013 Country Ranking

The “big movers” in the month of March show some familiar faces…

Notable Movers to the Upside:

  • Japan… Continued its upward trajectory in the model, moving from 5th to 1st overall. While previously being pushed by accelerating momentum, Japan showed significant improvements to both valuation and fundamental ranks in March. Japan’s trailing P/E dropped from 26x to 20x, greatly improving its relative valuation scores.
  • Australia… Showed the largest jump in the rankings, moving up 14 spots from 22nd to 8th. While it had slight improvements in the fundamental and risk rank, Australia’s move can be primarily traced to its momentum. Australia is the second hottest country in our model over the last 3 months, up 14.1%.

Notable Movers to the Downside:

  • India… Fell for the second consecutive month, this time by 17 spots. It had double-digit drops in its fundamental, momentum, and risk scores. India showed the largest drop in month-over-month change in its OECD leading indicators from one year ago (-1.0%).
  • Hong Kong… Dropped by 9 spots to 18th overall. The majority of this change can be attributed to an increasing risk rank. The Hong Kong Dollar now measures as overvalued in both relative and export competitiveness factors.

Factor Weightings:

The model is currently overweight risk factors by 2%, neutral valuation factors, and underweight momentum and fundamental factors by 1% each.

PDF PICCountry Ranking March 2013

AGA Chart Book for 03.08.2013


AGA Weekly Chartbook

1.    Global Financial Conditions

  • Global Equity markets rallied this week
  • U.S. Financial Conditions have improved to all-time highs, S&P 500 +8.76% YTD
  • European Financial Conditions have improved over the last two weeks
  • Emerging Markets have underperformed Developed Markets YTD, but rallied the most in 2 months to close this week
  • Japan (+18%), Switzerland (+13.5%), and Australia (10%) are leading developed markets
  • European Markets rallied this week, but have underperformed YTD: Italy (-0.43%), Spain (+5.64%), France (+5.47%)
  • Investment Grade Bonds and US Treasuries are becoming more highly correlated @ 0.85
  • Consensus earnings growth for FY 2013 is a lofty 10.4%

2.    Interest Rates and Fixed Income

  • The US 10yr yields surged this week, rallying 20bps on the week, currently @ 2.04%
  • Investment Grade spreads have stopped narrowing, currently @1.73% over Treasuries
  • High Yield credit spreads are on resistance @ 3.61% over Treasuries
  • 5 Year Forward Inflation Expectations are at 2.83%, up from 2.76% last week

3.    Major Currencies

  • The Brazilian Real (+4.37%) is the strongest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Japanese Yen (-18.50%) is the weakest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The British Pound is forecasted to be the strongest major currencies vs. USD (+3.18%) through Q2 2013
  • The Brazilian Real is forecasted to be the weakest major currencies vs. USD (-1.56%) through Q2 2013
  • The US Dollar has bounced nicely from support @ 79, currently @ 82.71 on the Dollar Index
  • EURO @ $1.3005, down from 1.36 five weeks ago
  • The Mexican Central Bank cut interest rates by 0.50% this week
  • MXN/USD @ 12.67, strengthening from 12.76 last week (12 month lows are@ 12.54)

4.    Global Equity Markets

  • The ACWI and S&P 500 have broken out to 12 month highs
  • The MSCI EAFE and MSCI EM are remain below recent 12 month highs
  • Over the last 12 months (in USD): Turkey (+42%) and Australia (+28%) lead global markets
  • Healthcare (+14.47%) leads Global Sectors YTD, Basic Materials lag all sectors up 1.01% YTD
  • Asia Pacific (+12.21%) leads global regions YTD

5.    The Economy

  • Housing, Real Estate, and the Labor Market have been bright spots of the US Economy
  • Business Cycle Indicators are improving
  • Economic Data has surprised to the upside over the last 4 weeks
  • The US Payrolls beat expectations, reporting 236K new jobs added in February

6.    Commodities

  • Commodities (an equally weighted basket) appear to have bottomed this week, but remain in a medium-term downtrend
  • Gold @ $1578/oz., is down from $1576/oz. last week, support at $1550/oz.
  • Oil @ $91.95/barrel, down from $90.35 last week
  • Average Gas Prices have stopped moving higher, currently at $3.71, down from $3.77 last week

7.    Investor Sentiment

  • The VIX Index @ 12.59, down from 15.36 last week
  • Financial Stress remains low, and has dropped over the last 4 weeks
  • Fund Flows improved for the third week in a row
  • AAII Bears still outnumber Bulls by 7.45%, backing off from 8.6% last week
  • State Street Investor Confidence has broken out to 12 month highs

 

Please feel free to forward any questions or suggestions.

Thanks,

James

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

AGA Chart Book for 03.01.2013


AGA Weekly Chartbook

1.    Global Financial Conditions

  • The S&P 500 finished the week slightly higher after a sharp Monday selloff
  • U.S. Financial Conditions have pulled back from 12 month highs
  • European Financial Conditions continue to deteriorate
  • Emerging Markets have underperformed Developed Markets YTD
  •  European Markets are under pressure YTD: Italy (-3.67%), Spain (+0.24%), France (+1.62%), Germany (+1.26%)
  • Spanish and Italian 10yr Bond Yields, 5.08% and 4.77% respectively, have not confirmed the January rally in risk assets
  •  S&P 500 P/E multiple is forecasted to contract from 14.97 to 12.27 over the next 24 months
  • Consensus earnings growth for FY 2013 is a lofty 10.3%

2.    Interest Rates and Fixed Income

  • The US 10yr yields struggled to hold 2.00%, sliding 13bps lower on the week, currently @ 1.84%
  • Investment Grade and High Yield credit spreads have stopped narrowing
  • 5 Year Forward Inflation Expectations are at 2.76%, down from 2.90% in Mid February

3.    Major Currencies

  • The South Korea Won (+4.62%) is the strongest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Japanese Yen (-16.24%) is the weakest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Canadian Dollar is forecasted to be the strongest major currencies vs. USD (+3.72%) through Q2 2013
  • The Swedish Krona is forecasted to be the weakest major currencies vs. USD (-1.59%) through Q2 2013
  • The US Dollar has bounced nicely from support @ 79, currently @ 82.76 on the Dollar Index
  • EURO @ $1.3022, down from 1.33 two weeks ago
  • MXN/USD @ 12.76, weakening from 12.70 last week (12 month lows are@ 12.54)

4.    Global Equity Markets

  • The ACWI, MSCI EAFE, and MSCI EM are all consolidating near recent 12 month highs, but are at risk of losing upward momentum
  •  Over the last 12 months (in USD): Turkey (+31%), Thailand (+22%), and Australia (+22%) lead global markets
  • Healthcare (+11.71%) leads Global Sectors YTD, Basic Materials (+0.54%) lag Global Sectors YTD
  • Asia Pacific (+9.97%) leads global regions YTD
  • Small and Mid Cap Stocks have outperformed Large Caps YTD

5.    The Economy

  • Housing, Real Estate, and the Labor Market have been bright spots of the US Economy
  • Business Cycle Indicators are improving
  • The Industrial Sector Indicators have disappointed
  • Personal Income Growth missed expectations, coming in at -3.6%
  • ISM Manufacturing Index beat expectations, coming in at 54.2

6.    Commodities

  • Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a medium-term downtrend and are at 8 month lows
  •  Gold @ $1576/oz., is down from $1610/oz. just two weeks ago, support at $1550/oz.
  • Oil @ $90.68/barrel, down from $95.86 two weeks ago
  • Platinum is up 2.19% YTD, currently trading @ $1573/oz.
  • Average Gas Prices continue to move higher, currently at $3.77

7.    Investor Sentiment

  • The VIX Index @ 15.36, up from 12.46 two weeks ago
  • Financial Stress remains low, but has been quietly increasing the last 4 weeks
  • Bullish Fund Flows deteriorated for the second week in a row
  • Bears now outnumber Bulls by 8.2%, backing off from 9.29% more Bulls than Bears last week
  • The Citi Macro Risk Index spiked this week, but remains moderate

 

Please feel free to forward any questions or suggestions.

Thanks,

James

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

AGA Chart Book for 02.22.2013


AGA Weekly Chartbook

The Accuvest Weekly Chart Book provides an update on the following:

1.    Global Financial Conditions

  • The S&P 500 moved lower by 0.22% this week and is up 1.37% MTD
  • U.S. Financial Conditions have pulled back from 12 month highs
  • European Financial Conditions have deteriorated this month
  • Emerging Markets have underperformed Developed Markets YTD
  • European Markets are under pressure MTD: Italy (-6.91%), Spain (-2.19%), France (-0.71 %), Germany (-1.47%)
  • Spanish and Italian 10yr Bond Yields, 5.12% and 4.44% respectively, did not confirm the January rally in risk assets
  • S&P 500 P/E multiple is forecasted to contract from 14.97 to 12.27 over the next 24 months
  • Consensus earnings growth for FY 2013 is a lofty 10.3%

2.    Interest Rates and Fixed Income

  • The US 10yr yield moved 4bps lower on the week, and continues to struggle with resistance @ 2%
  • Investment Grade credit spreads remain in a 4 month sideways trend around a 1.8% spread over US Treasuries
  • 5 Year Forward Inflation Expectations are at 2.79%, down 0.15% on the week

3.    Major Currencies

  • The Euro (+5.31%) is the strongest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Japanese Yen (-15.89%) is the weakest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Canadian Dollar is forecasted to be the strongest major currencies vs. USD (+3.19%) through Q2 2013
  • The Swedish Krona is forecasted to be the weakest major currencies vs. USD (-1.88%) through Q2 2013
  • The US Dollar has bounced nicely from support @ 79, currently @ 81.46 on the Dollar Index
  • EURO @ $1.3194, down from 1.33 last week
  • MXN/USD @ 12.70, weakening from 12.69 last week (12 month lows are@ 12.54)

4.    Global Equity Markets

  • The ACWI, MSCI EAFE, and MSCI EM are all consolidating near recent 12 month highs, but are at risk of losing upward momentum
  • Over the last 12 months (in USD): Turkey (+25%), Thailand (+24%), and Australia (+23%) lead global markets
  • Healthcare (+9.90%) leads Global Sectors YTD, followed by Consumer Goods (+7.64%), Basic Materials are down -0.14% YTD

5.    The Economy

  • Housing, Real Estate, and the Labor Market have been bright spots of the US Economy
  • The Industrial Sector and Business Cycle Indicators are improving
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing report came in at -12.5, missing expectations
  • The Economic Surprise Index has broken back below its 4 week moving average

6.    Commodities

  • Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a medium-term downtrend and are at 8 month lows
  • Gold @ $1581/oz., is down from $1610/oz. just one week ago
  • Oil @ $93.13/barrel, down from $95.86 last week, but nicely higher from $85 in early December 2012
  • Gasoline (+9.52%), Platinum (+4.96%), and Cotton (+8.32%) lead major commodities YTD
  • Average Gas Prices continue to move higher, currently at $3.78, up from $3.64/gallon last week

7.    Investor Sentiment

  • The VIX Index @ 14.17, up from 12.46 on the week
  • Financial Stress remains low, but has been quietly increasing the last 2 weeks
  • Bullish Fund Flows deteriorated this week
  • Bulls outnumber Bears by 9.29%, backing off from a gaudy 28.1%just 4 weeks ago
  • The Citi Macro Risk Index spiked this week, but remains moderate

Please feel free to forward any questions or suggestions.

Thanks,

James

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

AGA Chart Book for 02.15.2013


AGA Weekly Chartbook

The Accuvest Weekly Chart Book provides an update on the following:

1.    Global Financial Conditions

  • The S&P 500 moved higher by 0.20% this week and is up 1.60% MTD
  • U.S. Financial Conditions have pushed to new bullish highs
  • European Financial Conditions have deteriorated this month
  • Emerging Markets have underperformed Developed Markets YTD
  • European Markets are under pressure MTD: Italy (-5.44%), Spain (-2.54%), France (-1.94%), Germany (-2.35%)
  • Spanish and Italian 10yr Bond Yields, 5.16% and 4.37% respectively, did not confirm the January rally in risk assets
  • S&P 500 P/E multiple is forecasted to contract from 15.01 to 12.29 over the next 24 months
  • Consensus earnings growth for FY 2013 is a lofty 10.4%

2.    Interest Rates and Fixed Income

  • The US 10yr yield moved 5bps higher on the week, currently at 2.00% and testing resistance
  • Investment Grade credit spreads narrowed nicely this week
  • 5 Year Forward Inflation Expectations are at 2.97%, up 0.07% on the week and making new 16 month highs

3.    Major Currencies

  • The Euro (+8.71%) is the strongest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Japanese Yen (-15.52%) is the weakest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Canadian Dollar is forecasted to be the strongest major currencies vs. USD (+2.69%) through Q2 2013
  • The Swedish Krona is forecasted to be the weakest major currencies vs. USD (-3.63%) through Q2 2013
  • The US Dollar has bounced nicely from support @ 79, currently @ 80.46 on the Dollar Index
  • EURO @ $1.336, flat on the week
  • MXN/USD @ 12.69, strengthening from 12.72 last week (12 month lows are@ 12.54)

4.    Global Equity Markets

  • The ACWI, MSCI EAFE, and MSCI EM are all consolidating near recent 12 month highs
  • Over the last 12 months: Turkey (+32%), Australia (+30%), and Switzerland (+23%) lead global markets
  • Healthcare (+9.32%) leads Global Sectors YTD, followed by Financials (+8.11%)

5.    The Economy

  • Housing, Real Estate, and the Labor Market have been bright spots of the US Economy
  • The Industrial Sector and Business Cycle Indicators are improving
  •  US Industrial Production came in a -0.1% in January, missing expectations of +0.2%
  • Consumer Confidence improved in January
  • The Economic Surprise Index has bounced back after breaking below its 4 week moving average two weeks ago

6.    Commodities

  • Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a medium-term downtrend
  • Gold @ $1610/oz., is down from $1667/oz. just one week ago
  • Oil @ $95.86/barrel, has moved nicely higher from $85 in early December 2012
  • Gasoline (+11.47%), Platinum (+9.60%), and Cotton (+8.22%) lead major commodities YTD
  • Average Gas Prices continue to move higher, currently at $3.64, up from $3.56/gallon last week

7.    Investor Sentiment

  • The VIX Index @ 12.46, down from 13.02 on the week, and remains near 5 year lows
  • Financial Stress remains low
  • Bullish Fund Flows improved nicely this week, flowing from money market to equities
  • Bulls outnumber Bears by 13.5%, backing off from a gaudy 28.1%just 3 weeks ago
  • The Citi Macro Risk Index remains moderate, but has made a significant move higher YTD

8.    Accuvest ETFs

  • ACCU (Accuvest Global Opportunities): +1.10% YTD
  • AGLS (Accuvest Global Long Short): 0.13% YTD

Please feel free to forward any questions or suggestions.

Thanks,

James

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.