AGA Chart Book for 02.15.2013


AGA Weekly Chartbook

The Accuvest Weekly Chart Book provides an update on the following:

1.    Global Financial Conditions

  • The S&P 500 moved higher by 0.20% this week and is up 1.60% MTD
  • U.S. Financial Conditions have pushed to new bullish highs
  • European Financial Conditions have deteriorated this month
  • Emerging Markets have underperformed Developed Markets YTD
  • European Markets are under pressure MTD: Italy (-5.44%), Spain (-2.54%), France (-1.94%), Germany (-2.35%)
  • Spanish and Italian 10yr Bond Yields, 5.16% and 4.37% respectively, did not confirm the January rally in risk assets
  • S&P 500 P/E multiple is forecasted to contract from 15.01 to 12.29 over the next 24 months
  • Consensus earnings growth for FY 2013 is a lofty 10.4%

2.    Interest Rates and Fixed Income

  • The US 10yr yield moved 5bps higher on the week, currently at 2.00% and testing resistance
  • Investment Grade credit spreads narrowed nicely this week
  • 5 Year Forward Inflation Expectations are at 2.97%, up 0.07% on the week and making new 16 month highs

3.    Major Currencies

  • The Euro (+8.71%) is the strongest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Japanese Yen (-15.52%) is the weakest major currencies vs. USD over the last 6 months
  • The Canadian Dollar is forecasted to be the strongest major currencies vs. USD (+2.69%) through Q2 2013
  • The Swedish Krona is forecasted to be the weakest major currencies vs. USD (-3.63%) through Q2 2013
  • The US Dollar has bounced nicely from support @ 79, currently @ 80.46 on the Dollar Index
  • EURO @ $1.336, flat on the week
  • MXN/USD @ 12.69, strengthening from 12.72 last week (12 month lows are@ 12.54)

4.    Global Equity Markets

  • The ACWI, MSCI EAFE, and MSCI EM are all consolidating near recent 12 month highs
  • Over the last 12 months: Turkey (+32%), Australia (+30%), and Switzerland (+23%) lead global markets
  • Healthcare (+9.32%) leads Global Sectors YTD, followed by Financials (+8.11%)

5.    The Economy

  • Housing, Real Estate, and the Labor Market have been bright spots of the US Economy
  • The Industrial Sector and Business Cycle Indicators are improving
  •  US Industrial Production came in a -0.1% in January, missing expectations of +0.2%
  • Consumer Confidence improved in January
  • The Economic Surprise Index has bounced back after breaking below its 4 week moving average two weeks ago

6.    Commodities

  • Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a medium-term downtrend
  • Gold @ $1610/oz., is down from $1667/oz. just one week ago
  • Oil @ $95.86/barrel, has moved nicely higher from $85 in early December 2012
  • Gasoline (+11.47%), Platinum (+9.60%), and Cotton (+8.22%) lead major commodities YTD
  • Average Gas Prices continue to move higher, currently at $3.64, up from $3.56/gallon last week

7.    Investor Sentiment

  • The VIX Index @ 12.46, down from 13.02 on the week, and remains near 5 year lows
  • Financial Stress remains low
  • Bullish Fund Flows improved nicely this week, flowing from money market to equities
  • Bulls outnumber Bears by 13.5%, backing off from a gaudy 28.1%just 3 weeks ago
  • The Citi Macro Risk Index remains moderate, but has made a significant move higher YTD

8.    Accuvest ETFs

  • ACCU (Accuvest Global Opportunities): +1.10% YTD
  • AGLS (Accuvest Global Long Short): 0.13% YTD

Please feel free to forward any questions or suggestions.

Thanks,

James

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

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