This month, keep a close eye on the “big movers”:
Notable Movers to the Upside:
- Russia… Improved by 11 spots from 17th to 6th overall. They had improvement in their momentum score, but are continuing to benefit from the best valuation score in the model. Russia is the only country in our model that still has a single digit P/E (5.6).
- Malaysia… Improved by 13 spots in January after showing a big jump in their risk ranking. An improving CDS as well as attractive currency valuation helped move them to be the third least risky country. Malaysia also showed improving fundamentals and momentum scores.
Notable Movers to the Downside:
- Israel… Had the largest drop, falling 11 spots to 27th overall. They were the worst performing country in December, which was reflected in a plunging momentum score. Additionally, Israel has the worst price momentum over the last 3, 9 and 12 month periods of the countries in the model.
- Spain… Had shown signs of improvement, but fell 5 spots to 26th overall. Increasing risk and deteriorating fundamentals have moved Spain back to the bottom of the model.
The model is currently overweight risk factors by 2%, neutral valuation factors, and underweight momentum and fundamental factors by 1% each.